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Feb 18, 2026
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LONG
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BAE Systems reported strong earnings with sales guidance up 7-9%. Rheinmetall is trading in sympathy. Geopolitical tensions (Ukraine/Russia talks, Middle East) continue to drive government defense spending, providing a floor for these stocks regardless of the broader tech cycle. LONG DEFENSE SECTOR. Unexpected peace treaties or government budget cuts. |
Bloomberg Markets
Lagarde Reported to Leave ECB Before Term End...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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"Anthropic... hitting a snag... trying to put a guard rail to stop it to be used for... mass surveillance... or autonomous weapon systems. The Pentagon seems to be pushing back hard... opens the door for OpenAI, Gemini or Grok to get a piece of the action." The Department of Defense has a mandate for lethal/surveillance AI. If Anthropic refuses on ethical grounds, the massive government contracts will flow to competitors who are willing to comply (OpenAI/Microsoft, Google/Gemini, xAI). The Pentagon views ethical restrictions as a "supply chain risk." LONG the "compliant" AI providers (GOOGL, MSFT) and private equity exposure to SpaceX/xAI. AVOID Anthropic-linked vehicles for defense exposure. Public backlash against "killer AI" developers; changes in Pentagon procurement policy. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stock Futures Slide; US, Iran Hold Talks in G...
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Feb 13, 2026
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SHORT
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DraftKings (DKNG) issued a weak outlook; Flutter fell ~8% in sympathy. The sector is facing disruption from "prediction markets" and potentially changing consumer habits. The market is swiftly repricing growth expectations downwards. SHORT. Momentum has broken, and regulatory/competitive headwinds are intensifying. M&A activity in the sector could squeeze shorts. |
Bloomberg Markets
L'Oreal Falls, Kongsberg Sees Air Defense Sys...
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Feb 13, 2026
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SHORT
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L'Oreal shares dropped ~6-7% (biggest since 2020) following a Q4 earnings miss. The weakness is driven by North Asia (China/Korea), where local "C-Beauty" and "K-Beauty" brands are taking market share, and travel retail is slumping. This suggests a structural erosion of the Western luxury brand premium in Asia. SHORT. The "China reopening" trade for luxury is dead; local competition is the new reality. Chinese stimulus measures could temporarily boost consumer discretionary spending. |
Bloomberg Markets
L'Oreal Falls, Kongsberg Sees Air Defense Sys...
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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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Unilever stock up ~8% on a Q4 sales beat and a €1.5bn share buyback. In a volatile macro environment (tariffs/AI churn), capital is rotating into defensive Consumer Staples that demonstrate pricing power and shareholder returns. LONG Unilever. Input cost inflation returning. |
Bloomberg Markets
Nuveen to Buy Schroders in Near £10 Billion D...
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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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SoftBank swinging to profit; "Central to that was that stake... in OpenAI... gains from OpenAI on that bet around $20 billion." SoftBank is effectively a proxy for pre-IPO OpenAI exposure. As OpenAI's valuation climbs (and Anthropic's $350B valuation sets a comp), SoftBank's NAV expands. Long as an AI proxy. Tech valuation crash; SoftBank's other holdings (ARM) underperforming. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Climb; Nuveen to Buy Schroders; Anthro...
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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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CEO Roland Busch says "industrial demand is off the charts... huge backlog, in fact, for the build out of datacenters." While tech companies fight over chips, the physical infrastructure (electrification, cooling, building management) is the bottleneck. Siemens is a "pick and shovel" play on the physical construction of AI data centers. Long on infrastructure demand. Global industrial slowdown outside of the data center sector. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Climb; Nuveen to Buy Schroders; Anthro...
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